What's Behind the Coup

Despite General Abdel Fattah El-Burhan’s false claim that he ceased power to prevent a civil war, the motives behind the military coup in Sudan are transparent. The Sudanese situation is extremely complicated, but Burhan and Hemedti, the coup leaders, have one goal: to preempt handing over presidency of the Sovereign Council to civilians, which is due to take place next month based on the Constitutional Document that governs the transitional period. The power grab couldn’t be more apparent. The generals’ wish list is very short: to avoid accountability for their past crimes in Darfur and elsewhere, and to maintain the financial and political power they gained during the years of Omar El-Bashir’s dictatorship. Both wishes satisfy the coup supporters, Bashir regime remnants and sympathizers whose ambitions of tyranny and theft, and stranglehold on the economy are known to the Sudanese people. 

In the last three decades, the military establishment has built a vast commercial empire of over 200 companies dealing in arms and ammunition, mining, construction, and many other ventures. They enjoy extensive tax exemptions and operate outside the national budget. In effect, the Sudanese military comprises an economically autonomous entity that exists in parallel to other state bodies, with no transparency or accountability. Hemedti has his own ruthless army of Rapid Support Forces who are currently terrorizing protestors in Khartoum and other cities. He refuses to abide by the Juba Peace Agreement, by which his militia is to be absorbed in the national armed forces. He has amassed wealth from control of gold mining in western Sudan and other enterprises, and maintains his own political relations with other countries. Prime Minister Hamdok has rightly described this ungoverned position of the military in Sudan as unacceptable. The Transitional Government, despite some missteps and shortcomings, had begun a process to correct this complex untenable situation. The generals couldn’t let this happen. 

On this fifth day of the coup, a new government has yet to be announced. There is great uncertainty. But from the continuing strong resistance to the coup, one thing is clear: a civilian government is coming; sooner or later, with more or less bloodshed. What the coup enforcers had hoped to achieve is to keep their leadership in the remainder of the transitional period, and then ensure that a government of their making comes to power via elections in 2023. Burhan’s selective suspension of the Constitutional Document is revealing. The suspended Article 16.5 concerns the formation of independent national commissions, including the critical commissions for Constitution Drafting; Elections; Anti-Corruption and Public Funds Recovery; and Transitional Justice. In other words, the intention is to upend all efforts to hold the generals and other Bashir operatives accountable in the next two years, and to gain control over the crafting of election laws and implementation logistics, giving themselves a good chance of getting a favorable outcome in 2023. This bears chilling resemblance to the Republicans’ playbook in the US. 

حرية سلام و عدالة

Freedom, Peace, Justice