Don’t Topple the Transitional Government, Prepare for Elections

 

Lack of patience and confidence in democratic civilian rule have undermined Sudanese revolutions since independence. They are threatening to do it again. Wishing to change the transitional government now, instead of preparing for elections, only serves the vestiges of Bashir’s regime. Revolutionaries must show the same clarity of mind, patience, and discipline with which these remnants are working to undermine the December Revolution.  

From the outset, we knew that the transitional government faces monumental challenges. The scope and complexity of the problems created by 30-years of Bashir’s dictatorship is staggering. The diversity of the FFC coalition, and the military’s stranglehold, in addition to the brew of foreign interests in Sudan’s affairs gave rise to a comprise government tasked with undoing an unimaginable level of all around damage. So, instead of focusing on what could be, one must appreciate what has been accomplished in less than two years of transition.

On the issue of economic recovery, Hamdok’s Government, as many like to call it, has succeeded in getting Sudan off the list of state sponsors of terrorism, which was crucial to ending decades-long economic isolation, and beginning to tackle the massive external debt. The conditions necessary to qualify for debt relief under the Highly Indebted Poor Countries Initiative are tough, but Bashir’s regime has left the country little choice. Looking at the removal of subsidies and streamlining the exchange rates as just another bad ‘neoliberal’ IMF/World Bank recipe is an all-or-nothing view that does not serve under the circumstances. To get out of the crippling external debt, dealing with the IMF and the World Bank is unavoidable. The more productive thing to do now is to take advantage of every resource they make available – for example, register as many as possible for the Family Support Program. What will matter for economic recovery and growth from here onward is judicious practical economic planning within the present constraints. Understandably, people on the street are growing more restless because of crushing inflation and shortage of necessary goods and services. The daily hardship is undeniable. But ideological opposition to economic reforms adds to dangerous impatience with the Revolution’s own government. Any new government will reset the clock back to zero.

If there is any hope of holding on to democratic civilian rule, it’s worth remembering that Hamdok’s Government has carried on under relentless, well-organized sabotage by the remnants of Bashir’s regime, in addition to the pandemic and conflict with Ethiopia. The transitional government is slowly, but surely, laying a foundation for an elected body to implement the will of the people on more solid ground than when it came into office. The highest priority today is to support this government and earnestly prepare for national elections. Otherwise, guess who will come back to power?

Sudan Revolution -- Almost Two Years of Transitional Government

It's been a long detour of busy work and COVID-19 havoc since my last post, "the Challenge of Peace," written just after the signing of the Constitutional Declaration and formation of the new Cabinet. Any idea of peace seemed elusive until the Juba Peace Agreement was reached in October 2020. Negotiations between the Transitional Government (TG) and armed rebel movements stalled almost every time they neared resolution. The process was suspended after an armed attack on IDP camps in Fata Borno in northern Darfur. But, in the end, an agreement was signed with the Revolutionary Front, comprised of nine rebel groups, most notably the Justice and Equality Movement, and the Sudan Liberation Movement/Army.

The Agreement's eight protocols mandate dissolution of the Front's militias and their integration into the regular army, implementation of justice and reparations, resolution of land disputes and development of Darfur's rural economy, return or resettlement of refugees and IDPs, wealth sharing, and power sharing during the now extended transitional period. The Sudan People's Liberation Movement-North and one faction of the Sudan Liberation Movement did not sign. However, the former has since come to an agreement on "principles" and talks are currently under way with TG. As many realize, the Juba Agreement is flawed. But, it remains an important step on Sudan's path to "freedom, peace, and justice."

In addition, TG has succeeded in getting Sudan removed from the terrorism-sponsoring states list, which it occupied for decades, thereby, helping to end the country's economic isolation and to deal with the crippling $60 billion external debt. This required meeting the conditions necessary to qualify for debt relief under the Highly Indebted Poor Countries Initiative. Streamlining the Sudanese Pound's exchange rates is the most recent of these conditions. Almost immediately, the US Treasury Department provided more than a billion dollars in bridge financing to help clear Sudan's debt to the World Bank. In May, the "Friends of Sudan" Paris Conference hosted by President Macron paved the way to settling Sudan's debt to the IMF.

The display of good will toward Sudan remains high. Beside the European Union, the US, France, and the UK, the "friends of Sudan" include most major western European nations, China, Japan, Russia, and a host of African and Arab "allies" such as the African Union, Egypt, Ethiopia, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. For now, this multinational coalition is keeping the military in check. Unfortunately, the global enthusiasm for the Sudanese revolution also underscores the magnitude of competing agendas and strategic interests in Sudan's affairs. TG has an unenviable task of balancing domestic and external pressures.

On the domestic front, young revolutionaries and other folk are growing more restless under suffocating inflation and shortages of fuel and electricity, among other necessities. Dissatisfaction with the slow pace of justice, and ideological opposition to IMF/World Bank reforms add to dangerous impatience. Some have called for toppling 'Hamdok's government.' The hardship on the streets is undeniable; but, the difficult nature of the transition was expected from the outset. If there is any hope of holding on to democratic civilian rule, it's worth remembering a few things. First, the scope and complexity of the problems created by 30-years of Bashir's dictatorship is staggering. TG has managed to accomplish some significant goals while fighting relentless, well-organized sabotage by the remnants of his regime, in addition to the pandemic and a new border conflict with Ethiopia. Second, there are no easy solutions to the debt problem; dealing with the IMF and the World Bank is unavoidable. Yet, what will matter for economic recovery and growth from here onward are judicious national economic plans and careful choices to be made within the current constraints. Third, TG is slowly laying a foundation for an elected government to implement the will of the people -- including on the economy -- on more solid ground. The critical priority for the struggling masses today is to organize and prepare for national elections, whenever they may come. If the necessary political infrastructure for elections is not ready by then, guess who will come back to power?