Sudan 2018/19 Revolution 101 - PART 8 TMC Must Go

Sudan revolution 101 – PART 8

TMC MUST GO

June 29/30 marks thirty years of military rule in Sudan; thirty years of oppression, murder, exile, impoverishment, corruption, war, and loss of national sovereignty. On this dismal anniversary, Sudanese people and their friends all over the world are coming out for massive marches in more than forty cities across the US, Europe, Africa, Australia, and beyond. The people’s demands are very clear: that the Transitional Military Council (TMC) hand over power to a civilian government, release all political prisoners, launch an independent, internationally monitored inquiry into the massacre of June third, and lift restrictions on all means of expression and communication, including the Internet. The African Union, US, and EU all support these demands.

TMC has yet to give one concession or show an ounce of good will toward the opposition as represented by the Forces for Freedom and Change (FFC). Instead, TMC has rejected all mediation efforts, including the Ethiopian Prime Minister’s proposal supported by both the AU and the US. TMC has even reneged on the agreement that it had reached with FFC regarding the relative representation of civilians and the military in a transitional government. Meanwhile, the RSF/Janjaweed militias run rampant over Sudanese people, killing, raping, robbing, and flogging them on the streets. Just today, Reuters reported that “security forces fired tear gas to disperse dozens of students demonstrating against military rule in Khartoum” (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/1-security-forces-tear-gas-181043731.html).

Currently, indirect talks about the shape of the transitional government are proceeding at a slow pace between FFC and TMC primarily because of the latter’s lack of cooperation, hoping to gain time and entrench itself in power. The people should not wait for a transitional government to address all issues; they should press TMC to resign now. None of its members, especially, the RSF leader, should participate in the transitional government because they woefully lack credibility and competence to handle the difficult tasks that lie ahead in a new Sudan. At worst, TMC is a murderous band fully responsible for the Sit-In massacre and other atrocities that have taken place since then. At best, it is incapable or unwilling to protect the people. TMC is morally and practically unqualified to be part of the transitional government.

The marches planned for June 30 are to mourn and demand justice for the victims of the June 3 massacre, and to take back Sudan from the military junta. The world is watching. TMC better not harm the peaceful crowds; it better not commit acts of violence and or destruction of property and then blame it on the protestors or on “unknown criminal elements” as it did just before the massacre.

Find your city for June 30.

 

Sudan 2018/19 Revolution 101 - PART 7 Three Possible Scenarios

Sudan Revolution: 

Three Possible scenarios

One cannot but be optimistic about the future of Sudan, given the bravery and determination of the young men and women out on the streets, the wisdom of the Sudanese Professionals Association, and the unified insistence on peaceful resistance by the broad coalition of the Forces of Freedom and Change (FFC). Unfortunately, the magnitude of weaponry and size of the paramilitary mercenary groups backing the Transitional Military Council (TMC), and the vast financial resources they draw from their allied countries abroad, make the battle for the liberation of Sudan extremely unequal. The question is how will this decidedly peaceful movement defeat this murderous alliance? There appears to be three possible scenarios?

The first is based on people’s relentless peaceful resistance through persistent demonstrations, and civil disobedience. People must come out in massive numbers from all over Sudan to take power in Khartoum. Most likely, this will be met with brutal force, causing many more casualties, and it may take long, but this confrontation is unavoidable. The best outcome is if this popular uprising, with mediation help, manages to overwhelm the current regime.

The second scenario goes through the hyper militarized ethnic landscape of Sudan, which Basheer created by arming different paramilitary groups to fight his genocidal wars and to protect his regime. His era has also produced up to seven armed rebel movements because armed resistance became the only available option to many. These movements have not yet responded publically to TMC’s refusal to cooperate in the transition to civilian rule. How long will they remain silent? In addition, it is reported that several armed tribal groups in Darfur are preparing to challenge Hemedti’s ascendency to power. It’s not clear how long it will be before a bloody engagement occurs, and whether this will take place in Khartoum or across the vast regions to the west. The traditional Sudanese army (the Sudan Armed Forces) is largely silent, but regardless of its reaction, the military scenario – namely, an all-out civil war – would be the worst outcome.

The third potential scenario, which may be the least damaging and most productive in the long run is the deployment of a massive UN/AU peace keeping mission (a la UNAMID) to prevent the apocalyptic slaughter of untold numbers and the country’s disintegration. This option is not free of shortcomings, but it may be the most promising way to force out TMC, and Hemedti and his Janjaweed troops. Some fellow Sudanese are opposed to outside intervention, even through mediation, but it’s too late to take this position. The number of countries already involved in Sudanese politics, mostly with counter-productive influences, exceeds five. Most importantly, a peace keeping force could help lay the groundwork for the difficult task of disarmament and demilitarization in a post-TMC period. Any durable solution in Sudan is unattainable without taking this step.

Useful links

• http://www.smallarmssurveysudan.org/fileadmin/docs/issue-briefs/HSBA-IB-27-Sudanese-paramilitary-forces.pdf
• https://www.hrw.org/report/2015/09/09/men-no-mercy/rapid-support-forces-attacks-against-civilians-darfur-sudan

Sudan 2018/19 Revolution 101 --PART 6 What Has Changed?

What has changed?

Saturday June 22 – The “I am the Sudan Revolution” and “Blue for Sudan” worldwide campaigns reveal an incredible level of solidarity with the Sudanese people’s uprising against dictatorship and the murderous attack on their peaceful protest on June 3. Scores of young people from different nationalities have joined Sudanese rallies in many countries, some even marched on their own, in support of the Sudanese people’s demands for freedom, peace and justice.

Many governments and regional bodies have also been highly supportive, with strong condemnation of the June massacre, and calls for swift transition to civilian rule. The European Union and the US have put pressure on the Transitional Military Council (TMC) by stressing the need for independent inquiry into the massacre, withdrawal of military presence from civilian areas, release of political prisoners, and lifting the ban on the Internet.

Yet, little has changed since June third. TMC has not agreed to an independent investigation, the Internet blackout remains, and the lawless Rapid Support Forces/Janjaweed militias continue to rob, rape, and beat people with impunity. It is now abundantly clear that TMC has no intention of relinquishing power to civilians, or even backing away from the dictatorial orientation of Al Basheer’s 30-year regime. On the contrary, TMC has added insult to injury by minimizing the number of those murdered on Ramadan 29, and altogether denying the reports of rape. In a theatrical move, the Council brought Basheer to court for arraignment on charges of corruption and money laundering, but fell silent on his genocidal war crimes. TMC is busy meeting with Basheer loyalists within the ranks of professionals and tribal leaders as it prepares to form a ‘civilian government’ of its own choosing.

It is no wonder that people are back out in the streets, again roaring thawra, thawra, revolution, revolution. Spontaneous demonstrations have broken out in Khartoum and other cities. People are defiant despite the terror visited upon them barely three weeks ago. Teachers, doctors, bankers, engineers, among other professionals are protesting outside their places of work, silently holding signs that denounce TMC. Some have been arrested. The resistance is mobilizing for a second uprising. In the absence of the Internet, the Forces for Freedom and Change (FFC) leadership now distributes protest plans, which neighborhood committees adapt and execute as necessary and or feasible. Evening demonstrations are carrying on in the triangular capital city – Khartoum, Um Durman, and Bahri. Awareness raising gatherings in different locations around the city are attended by the same broad swath of ordinary citizens who launched the first uprising in December – young and old, men and women, and children too. Determination and insistence on peaceful resistance remain high.

FFC has just announced its acceptance of the Ethiopian proposal for a joint civilian-military transitional government. Will TMC accept in turn? Or will it continue on the current path of delay and avoidance, while entrenching its de facto regime.