Sudan Revolution:
Three Possible scenarios
One cannot but be optimistic about the future of Sudan,
given the bravery and determination of the young men and women out on the
streets, the wisdom of the Sudanese Professionals Association, and the unified insistence
on peaceful resistance by the broad coalition of the Forces of Freedom and
Change (FFC). Unfortunately, the magnitude of weaponry and size of the
paramilitary mercenary groups backing the Transitional Military Council (TMC), and
the vast financial resources they draw from their allied countries abroad, make
the battle for the liberation of Sudan extremely unequal. The question is how
will this decidedly peaceful movement defeat this murderous alliance? There
appears to be three possible scenarios?
The first is based
on people’s relentless peaceful resistance through persistent demonstrations, and
civil disobedience. People must come out in massive numbers from all over Sudan
to take power in Khartoum. Most likely, this will be met with brutal force, causing
many more casualties, and it may take long, but this confrontation is
unavoidable. The best outcome is if this popular uprising, with mediation help,
manages to overwhelm the current regime.
The second scenario
goes through the hyper militarized ethnic landscape of Sudan, which Basheer created
by arming different paramilitary groups to fight his genocidal wars and to
protect his regime. His era has also produced up
to seven armed rebel movements because armed resistance became the only
available option to many. These movements have not yet responded publically to TMC’s refusal to cooperate in the
transition to civilian rule. How long will they remain silent? In addition, it
is reported that several armed tribal groups in Darfur are preparing to
challenge Hemedti’s ascendency to power. It’s not clear how long it will be
before a bloody engagement occurs, and whether this will take place in Khartoum
or across the vast regions to the west. The traditional Sudanese army (the Sudan
Armed Forces) is largely silent, but regardless of its reaction, the military
scenario – namely, an all-out civil war – would be the worst outcome.
The third potential
scenario, which may be the least damaging and most productive in the long run
is the deployment of a massive UN/AU peace keeping mission (a la UNAMID) to prevent the
apocalyptic slaughter of untold numbers and the country’s disintegration. This
option is not free of shortcomings, but it may be the most promising way to force out TMC,
and Hemedti and his Janjaweed troops. Some fellow Sudanese are opposed to
outside intervention, even through mediation, but it’s too late to take this
position. The number of countries already involved in Sudanese politics, mostly
with counter-productive influences, exceeds five. Most importantly, a peace
keeping force could help lay the groundwork for the difficult task of disarmament
and demilitarization in a post-TMC period. Any durable solution in Sudan is
unattainable without taking this step.
Useful links
- http://www.smallarmssurveysudan.org/fileadmin/docs/issue-briefs/HSBA-IB-27-Sudanese-paramilitary-forces.pdf
- https://www.hrw.org/report/2015/09/09/men-no-mercy/rapid-support-forces-attacks-against-civilians-darfur-sudan
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